The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013

Li Ming Ho, Christian Schafferer, Jie Min Lee, Chun Yuan Yeh, Chi Jung Hsieh

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Objectives: This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. Methods: Using panel data from the 1999–2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. Results: Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. Conclusions: Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)899-909
Number of pages11
JournalInternational Journal of Public Health
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - 2017 Nov 1


All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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