The abrupt shift of typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and its association with western North Pacific-East Asian climate change

Jien-Yi Tu, Chia Chou, Pao Shin Chu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

126 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Bayesian analysis is applied to detect changepoints in the time series of seasonal typhoon counts in the vicinity of Taiwan. An abrupt shift in the typhoon count series occurs in 2000. On average, 3.3 typhoons per year have been noted before 2000 (1970-99), with the rate increasing to 5.7 typhoons per year since 2000 (2000-06). This abrupt change is consistent with a northward shift of the typhoon track over the western North Pacific-East Asian region and an increase of typhoon frequency over the Taiwan-East China Sea region. The northward shift of the typhoon track tends to be associated with typhoon-enhancing environmental conditions over the western North Pacific, namely, the weakening of the western North Pacific subtropical high, the strengthening of the Asian summer monsoon trough, and the enhanced positive vorticity anomalies in the lower troposphere. Based on observational analysis and model simulations, warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial western and central Pacific appear to be a major factor contributing to a northward-shifted typhoon track.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3617-3628
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume22
Issue number13
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009 Aug 3

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typhoon
climate change
Bayesian analysis
vorticity
temperature anomaly
troposphere
trough
monsoon
sea surface temperature
environmental conditions
time series
anomaly
summer
simulation

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

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The abrupt shift of typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and its association with western North Pacific-East Asian climate change. / Tu, Jien-Yi; Chou, Chia; Chu, Pao Shin.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, No. 13, 03.08.2009, p. 3617-3628.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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