Statistical tests for pre-earthquake ionospheric anomaly

Yuh Ing Chen, Jann Yenq Liu, Yi Ben Tsai, Chun-Shu Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

51 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The anomalous depression of the maximum plasma frequency in the ionosphere (foF2) appears significantly within 1-5 days before the M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in the Taiwan area during 1994 - 1999 (Liu et al. 2003). In this paper, we propose two statistical tests against the foF2 anomaly as a candidate for a precursor of earthquakes based on criteria including the success rate, alarm rate, probability gain, and R score. One statistical test is conducted to investigate the significance of the observed foF2 anomalies related to the recorded M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in the Taiwan area during 1994-1999. The other statistical test is designed to compare the foF2 anomaly-based method with competitive alternatives for predicting the earthquakes under study. The involved alternatives are a naive prediction based on a coin-tossing experiment and a simple prediction method constructed from the current M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes catalog during 1994 - 1999. The simulation results indicate that, contrast to possible foF2 anomalies, the observed foF2 anomalies are signiflcantly earthquake-related. Moreover, comparing with the alternative predictions under study, the foF2 anomaly remains valid for temporal alarming of the M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in the Taiwan area during 1994 - 1999.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)385-396
Number of pages12
JournalTerrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Volume15
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2004 Jan 1

Fingerprint

anomaly
earthquake
prediction
earthquake catalogue
test
ionosphere
plasma
simulation
experiment
rate
method

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Oceanography
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

Cite this

Chen, Yuh Ing ; Liu, Jann Yenq ; Tsai, Yi Ben ; Chen, Chun-Shu. / Statistical tests for pre-earthquake ionospheric anomaly. In: Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. 2004 ; Vol. 15, No. 3. pp. 385-396.
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Statistical tests for pre-earthquake ionospheric anomaly. / Chen, Yuh Ing; Liu, Jann Yenq; Tsai, Yi Ben; Chen, Chun-Shu.

In: Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Vol. 15, No. 3, 01.01.2004, p. 385-396.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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