Modeling the spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggered by typhoons

Kang tsung Chang, Shou hao Chiang, Yi-Chin Chen, Alessandro C. Mondini

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Many shallow landslides in Taiwan are triggered by typhoons (tropical cyclones) during the summer months. Each typhoon produces a different rainfall distribution, depending on its track and position and the atmospheric conditions. This study investigated whether the additional rainfall data in a landslide susceptibility model can improve its performance in predicting typhoon-triggered landslides, and whether information on past typhoon events, combined with an event-based landslide inventory, can help predict landslides triggered by a typhoon. To answer these questions, the study adopted a method that integrates rainfall data with the critical rainfall model (a landslide susceptibility model based on geoenvironmental factors) to derive a logistic regression model for predicting landslide occurrence. Results of a back analysis of landslides triggered by nine typhoons from 2001 to 2009 reveal that, by including rainfall data, the integrated method performs better than the critical rainfall model in the average overall accuracy rate (0.78 vs. 0.45) and the average modified success rate (0.75 vs. 0.68). Our preliminary results also suggest that it is possible to predict landslides triggered by a typhoon by using a catch-all model developed from all other typhoon events in an inventory, or a group model developed from other typhoon events of similar rainfall characteristics in an inventory. This study opens up a new research direction in analyzing rainfall-triggered landslides in Taiwan and elsewhere.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)137-148
Number of pages12
JournalGeomorphology
Volume208
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Mar 1

Fingerprint

landslide
typhoon
rainfall
modeling
back analysis
tropical cyclone
logistics
summer

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Earth-Surface Processes

Cite this

Chang, Kang tsung ; Chiang, Shou hao ; Chen, Yi-Chin ; Mondini, Alessandro C. / Modeling the spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggered by typhoons. In: Geomorphology. 2014 ; Vol. 208. pp. 137-148.
@article{c3edcd42ddd14b06a77b4027b2d390cf,
title = "Modeling the spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggered by typhoons",
abstract = "Many shallow landslides in Taiwan are triggered by typhoons (tropical cyclones) during the summer months. Each typhoon produces a different rainfall distribution, depending on its track and position and the atmospheric conditions. This study investigated whether the additional rainfall data in a landslide susceptibility model can improve its performance in predicting typhoon-triggered landslides, and whether information on past typhoon events, combined with an event-based landslide inventory, can help predict landslides triggered by a typhoon. To answer these questions, the study adopted a method that integrates rainfall data with the critical rainfall model (a landslide susceptibility model based on geoenvironmental factors) to derive a logistic regression model for predicting landslide occurrence. Results of a back analysis of landslides triggered by nine typhoons from 2001 to 2009 reveal that, by including rainfall data, the integrated method performs better than the critical rainfall model in the average overall accuracy rate (0.78 vs. 0.45) and the average modified success rate (0.75 vs. 0.68). Our preliminary results also suggest that it is possible to predict landslides triggered by a typhoon by using a catch-all model developed from all other typhoon events in an inventory, or a group model developed from other typhoon events of similar rainfall characteristics in an inventory. This study opens up a new research direction in analyzing rainfall-triggered landslides in Taiwan and elsewhere.",
author = "Chang, {Kang tsung} and Chiang, {Shou hao} and Yi-Chin Chen and Mondini, {Alessandro C.}",
year = "2014",
month = "3",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.11.020",
language = "English",
volume = "208",
pages = "137--148",
journal = "Geomorphology",
issn = "0169-555X",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Modeling the spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggered by typhoons. / Chang, Kang tsung; Chiang, Shou hao; Chen, Yi-Chin; Mondini, Alessandro C.

In: Geomorphology, Vol. 208, 01.03.2014, p. 137-148.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling the spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggered by typhoons

AU - Chang, Kang tsung

AU - Chiang, Shou hao

AU - Chen, Yi-Chin

AU - Mondini, Alessandro C.

PY - 2014/3/1

Y1 - 2014/3/1

N2 - Many shallow landslides in Taiwan are triggered by typhoons (tropical cyclones) during the summer months. Each typhoon produces a different rainfall distribution, depending on its track and position and the atmospheric conditions. This study investigated whether the additional rainfall data in a landslide susceptibility model can improve its performance in predicting typhoon-triggered landslides, and whether information on past typhoon events, combined with an event-based landslide inventory, can help predict landslides triggered by a typhoon. To answer these questions, the study adopted a method that integrates rainfall data with the critical rainfall model (a landslide susceptibility model based on geoenvironmental factors) to derive a logistic regression model for predicting landslide occurrence. Results of a back analysis of landslides triggered by nine typhoons from 2001 to 2009 reveal that, by including rainfall data, the integrated method performs better than the critical rainfall model in the average overall accuracy rate (0.78 vs. 0.45) and the average modified success rate (0.75 vs. 0.68). Our preliminary results also suggest that it is possible to predict landslides triggered by a typhoon by using a catch-all model developed from all other typhoon events in an inventory, or a group model developed from other typhoon events of similar rainfall characteristics in an inventory. This study opens up a new research direction in analyzing rainfall-triggered landslides in Taiwan and elsewhere.

AB - Many shallow landslides in Taiwan are triggered by typhoons (tropical cyclones) during the summer months. Each typhoon produces a different rainfall distribution, depending on its track and position and the atmospheric conditions. This study investigated whether the additional rainfall data in a landslide susceptibility model can improve its performance in predicting typhoon-triggered landslides, and whether information on past typhoon events, combined with an event-based landslide inventory, can help predict landslides triggered by a typhoon. To answer these questions, the study adopted a method that integrates rainfall data with the critical rainfall model (a landslide susceptibility model based on geoenvironmental factors) to derive a logistic regression model for predicting landslide occurrence. Results of a back analysis of landslides triggered by nine typhoons from 2001 to 2009 reveal that, by including rainfall data, the integrated method performs better than the critical rainfall model in the average overall accuracy rate (0.78 vs. 0.45) and the average modified success rate (0.75 vs. 0.68). Our preliminary results also suggest that it is possible to predict landslides triggered by a typhoon by using a catch-all model developed from all other typhoon events in an inventory, or a group model developed from other typhoon events of similar rainfall characteristics in an inventory. This study opens up a new research direction in analyzing rainfall-triggered landslides in Taiwan and elsewhere.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84893799433&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84893799433&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.11.020

DO - 10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.11.020

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84893799433

VL - 208

SP - 137

EP - 148

JO - Geomorphology

JF - Geomorphology

SN - 0169-555X

ER -