Abstract
In the light of the important role played by the return period in seismic hazard analysis, two types of statistical analyses (Gutenburg-Richter's law and Markov chain) were applied to study the earthquake periodicity in the Chiayi-Tainan area. There are two data sets prepared for this study; one contains earthquakes with ML ≥ 4 (283 events) during the 1900-1995 period, the other contains earthquakes with ML ≥ 2 (3816 events) during the 1973-1995 period. The mean return period and h values estimated with Gutenburg-Richter relation for earthquakes in the study area are in agreement with previous studies. The mean return period for ML ≥ 6 earthquakes is 9.7 years from the data in 1900-1995 period, and 17 years from the data in 1900-1995 period. The Markov chain measures the transition characteristics of earthquakes, and estimates that ML=6-6.9 and ML ≥ 7.0 earthquakes repeat at intervals of 28 and 135 of ML ≥ 4 earthquake events, respectively, in the Chiayi-Tainan area. This study also demonstrated that investigation of "substitutability" phenomenon is applicable to earthquake data, which suggests high similarity for low-magnitude earthquakes and dissimilarity for high-magnitude earthquakes. The result from these statistical approaches for earthquake occurrences leads to a conceptual model inferring fault behavior. This model is supported by the recent geologic findings, which may be potentially useful in earthquake hazard assessment.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 157-168 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Engineering Geology |
| Volume | 63 |
| Issue number | 1-2 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2002 Jan 1 |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
- Geology
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Estimates of earthquake recurrences in the Chiayi - Tainan area, Taiwan. / Tsai, Heng.
In: Engineering Geology, Vol. 63, No. 1-2, 01.01.2002, p. 157-168.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimates of earthquake recurrences in the Chiayi - Tainan area, Taiwan
AU - Tsai, Heng
PY - 2002/1/1
Y1 - 2002/1/1
N2 - In the light of the important role played by the return period in seismic hazard analysis, two types of statistical analyses (Gutenburg-Richter's law and Markov chain) were applied to study the earthquake periodicity in the Chiayi-Tainan area. There are two data sets prepared for this study; one contains earthquakes with ML ≥ 4 (283 events) during the 1900-1995 period, the other contains earthquakes with ML ≥ 2 (3816 events) during the 1973-1995 period. The mean return period and h values estimated with Gutenburg-Richter relation for earthquakes in the study area are in agreement with previous studies. The mean return period for ML ≥ 6 earthquakes is 9.7 years from the data in 1900-1995 period, and 17 years from the data in 1900-1995 period. The Markov chain measures the transition characteristics of earthquakes, and estimates that ML=6-6.9 and ML ≥ 7.0 earthquakes repeat at intervals of 28 and 135 of ML ≥ 4 earthquake events, respectively, in the Chiayi-Tainan area. This study also demonstrated that investigation of "substitutability" phenomenon is applicable to earthquake data, which suggests high similarity for low-magnitude earthquakes and dissimilarity for high-magnitude earthquakes. The result from these statistical approaches for earthquake occurrences leads to a conceptual model inferring fault behavior. This model is supported by the recent geologic findings, which may be potentially useful in earthquake hazard assessment.
AB - In the light of the important role played by the return period in seismic hazard analysis, two types of statistical analyses (Gutenburg-Richter's law and Markov chain) were applied to study the earthquake periodicity in the Chiayi-Tainan area. There are two data sets prepared for this study; one contains earthquakes with ML ≥ 4 (283 events) during the 1900-1995 period, the other contains earthquakes with ML ≥ 2 (3816 events) during the 1973-1995 period. The mean return period and h values estimated with Gutenburg-Richter relation for earthquakes in the study area are in agreement with previous studies. The mean return period for ML ≥ 6 earthquakes is 9.7 years from the data in 1900-1995 period, and 17 years from the data in 1900-1995 period. The Markov chain measures the transition characteristics of earthquakes, and estimates that ML=6-6.9 and ML ≥ 7.0 earthquakes repeat at intervals of 28 and 135 of ML ≥ 4 earthquake events, respectively, in the Chiayi-Tainan area. This study also demonstrated that investigation of "substitutability" phenomenon is applicable to earthquake data, which suggests high similarity for low-magnitude earthquakes and dissimilarity for high-magnitude earthquakes. The result from these statistical approaches for earthquake occurrences leads to a conceptual model inferring fault behavior. This model is supported by the recent geologic findings, which may be potentially useful in earthquake hazard assessment.
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0036141342&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S0013-7952(01)00079-5
DO - 10.1016/S0013-7952(01)00079-5
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0036141342
VL - 63
SP - 157
EP - 168
JO - Engineering Geology
JF - Engineering Geology
SN - 0013-7952
IS - 1-2
ER -